From the cheap seats: How elections go when major parties lose respect
Australia has an election campaign with two opposition leaders. Dennis Atkins explains why.
Everyone said it would be an election unlike anything weāve seen but no one expected the rolling omni-cluster unfolding at the moment.
It is a unique contest in Australian politics ā a battle of two opposition leaders.
It was expected Anthony Albanese and Labor would be out railing against Scott Morrison and the Coalition. Theyāve been doing it for three years and, as Irish rocker Van Morrison used to say, itās too late to stop now.
Morrison, meanwhile, is never as happy as when heās fighting against something or someone.
Sure, the marketing king loves selling (mainly himself) but itās usually framed in how bad the other guy is.
The clue to why this contest is following this script ā and maybe where it might stay and end ā is in the numbers thrown up by the latest polling.
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Newspoll this week had the LNP on 35 percent and Labor on 36 percent ā a combined major party vote of barely seven in 10 Australians. The other 29 percent were opting for the Greens, One Nation, Clive Palmer and independent/others.
Ipsos, which keeps the ādonāt knowsā in the primary tally, had a combined Labor/Coalition vote of 61 percent. All pretty grim stuff and never seen before in a federal election.
As support for first preferences evaporates for these once-were-great parties, the smaller parties benefit and the public turn off. Just 40 years ago ā a dozen or so elections out of almost 50 since federation ā the ALP and Liberal/Nationals walked out of the Tally Room with 94 percent of the primary vote.
In the middle of the current electoral sludge is mudslinging and scare campaigns at the campaign equivalent of 40 paces.
Labor is running hard on the cashless debit card ā a field of political attack the ALP has been hoeing for a few years, basing their case on the existing rollout, support for extension of the scheme from a range of Liberal ministers (including Morrison) and documents detailing where it might be used.
Labor has taken whatās already happened to the next level, claiming they would make Australia four and half million pensioners use the card. Itās sent waves of concern through the ranks of frightened elderly.
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Morrison is clearly worried this might take hold in the mind of many pensioners which is why heās calling it a disgusting lie and shouting loud about what he calls a rerun of the quite successful āMediscareā campaign in 2016.
The Coalition is returning fire with free and paid media messaging about Laborās planned āretiree taxā ā something never proposed or suggested by Albanese or his team at any time in recent history.
Labor meanwhile is equally concerned about Morrison shaking the asylum seeker stick ā helped by Albaneseās very weak campaign performance, not knowing or having a brain fade about his policy or (as he claimed) mishearing a question.
Morrison couldnāt believe his luck, relishing the opportunity to crow about his record on āturning back boatsā and pointing to Laborās asylum seeker policy failures in 2007-2013.
The Coalition always wanted to make Albanese the issue but the Labor leaderās small target strategy kept this out of their reach. It has only been since the campaign started that Morrison has been able to launch a full-blooded assault.
Labor has had to scramble after a clown car-like first week, making attack a priority, returning to the winning playbook of the last three years by shining a light on Morrisonās shortcomings, mistakes and the list of reasons people have lost faith in him.
This leaves us with two opposition leaders fighting it out until the last man is standing.
Thereās danger for both sides in these circumstances. The Coalition put the issue up in lights by attacking in front page stories ā a tactic which might be seen as more than crazy brave by telling more people about it and making more of those 4.5 million pensioners very afraid.
Labor could get some backwash from having the story around but they will be more worried about the asylum seeker boats appearing on the political horizon.
At the same time, theyād be foolish to ignore the potential of the āretireesā taxā charge. Just three years ago Morrison glued an allegation about chasing the pensions of retirees who had shares on Bill Shorten.
If Morrison and Albanese continue to take political paint off each other, the winner could well be the āpox on all your housesā crowd whether it is the Greens, One Nation or whoever might be around with their corflutes on show.
One thing for sure is that no campaign can have more than two opposition leaders, especially if they are unpopular in equal measure.
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