Why spending a week out of the spotlight might not be such a bad thing for Albo
In an election campaign where 12 hours canāt pass without someone getting their hair on fire, the end of the second week expect-the-unexpected swerve for Anthony Albanese shouldnāt be surprising or difficult to manage for Labor.
Labor always knew being infected was one of the āmost likely problemsā theyād encounter. Scott Morrison had his own run around the virus paddock in early March, around 50,000 Australians are contracting Covid-19 every day and campaigns are by definition up-close-and-personal events.
So until next Thursday night, Albanese is confined to his Marrickville home in a physical sense but not in a political sense ā not by a long shot.
Morrison was lucky to have been almost without symptoms ā he was reported as āfeeling under the weatherā ā and he carried out most engagements he could, including virtual attendance at a meeting of the multi-nation Quad group, addressing the Lowy Institute, a business leadersā summit and being called in for numerous media interviews.
Albanese will do much the same, providing he doesnāt get any sicker than the reportedly asymptomatic condition with which he has started his brush with the virus.
Almost always, people are more unwell in the first 24 or so hours. If Albanese is feeling as relatively okay tonight as he says he was last night he should be good to go for the rest of the time in isolation.
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With 5.56 million Australians having come down with the virus this year ā thatās not a misprint ā plenty of people will understand what Albanese is dealing with.
This is the basic background to whatās going on and how it might impact Albanese and Laborās campaign.Ā The top line assessment is this: unless there are any serious āunknown unknownsā this will almost certainly be a campaign benefit for the Labor leader.
The top reason for this is Morrison is going to have to dial down his direct attacks on Albanese. The Coalition leader will continue to amp up assaults on Labor policies and go after some of his favourite targets, such as shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers (whom Morrison likes to call āslipperyā) and Labor deputy Richard Marles (the recipient of the āManchurian candidateā barb over China).
He will also pursue criticisms of Labor policies and his assertion they donāt really have any.
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However, this will be away from his political target of choice during the campaign ā the Labor leader himself.
The Coalitionās game plan has always had a goal of pushing Albanese into negative territory ā and dragging Laborās primary support down with it.
There has been some evidence this was working a bit in the first week or so ā albeit without any concurrent benefit in Coalition voting support. Without Albanese in the frame, this will be hard if not impossible.
Morrison might be tempted, especially if the Labor leader keeps issuing criticisms and political barbs from isolation. When Morrison had Covid-19 Albanese did 19 news conferences and interviews while his opponent was in isolation, although he blunted his criticisms.
Itās probably safe to say Morrison wonāt repeat one of the great stuff-ups a leader made in commenting on an opponent who fell ill ā the time in 1974 when the New Zealand National Partyās Robert Muldoon sent the Prime Minister Norm Kirk a telegram after the Labour leader was rushed to hospital with a heart attack.
āGet well soon Norm, a pensioner needs your bed,ā read Muldoonās āwhat was he thinkingā effort. While Muldoon never lived down the telegram, he did go on to run NZ for a decade.
Historic stuff-ups aside, Albanese can also benefit from conducting his business in a more controlled environment, away from the all-in-yapping news conferences and the sometimes belligerent attitude of some inquisitors.
While Albanese is broadcasting from his make-shift āRadio Free Marrickvilleā, his team ā Chalmers, Marles, Tanya Plibersek, Katy Gallagher and company ā will be out on the road providing complementary pictures to go with the story.
Contracting the virus might also prompt some in the community to refocus on a pandemic thatās fading from peopleās minds. This could revive memories of āitās not a raceā, the vaccine āstroll-outā, dropping the ball on RATs and the treatment of aged care patients. Not territory the Coalition wants to come back into gaze.
If the surrogates manage to stick to the script and nothing unexpected, unknown or uncontrollable turns up, this could be a small, first half of the campaign advantage to Labor.
Itās a bit like a horse in the Melbourne Cup going off-the-bit and settling into a steady pace in the second 800 metres of the 3200m event. A mare called Verry Elleegant did it last November.
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